Elon Musk Foresees AI Surpassing Human Intelligence by Next Year
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In a revelation that could redefine our relationship with technology, Tesla CEO Elon Musk anticipates the emergence of artificial intelligence that surpasses the intellect of the smartest human being possibly as early as next year, or by 2026 at the latest. During an interview filled with technological hitches on X spaces, Musk shared insights into the rapid advancements in AI, highlighting the constraints posed by the availability of electricity and the scarcity of advanced chips.
Musk, also a co-founder of OpenAI, has shifted his focus to his new venture, xAI, aiming to develop AI that benefits humanity while challenging the for-profit orientation he perceives in OpenAI. The anticipated Grok 2 model from xAI, expected to undergo training by May, symbolizes a leap towards achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) - a milestone where AI's cognitive abilities would exceed those of humans.
The progression towards AGI, according to Musk, is not just about sophisticated algorithms but also hinges on the hardware capability to support such intelligence. The training of the Grok 2 model alone is set to utilize approximately 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, with future models demanding five times that amount. This bottleneck underscores a shift from chip scarcity to electricity supply as the next critical challenge in AI development.
Musk's comments underscore a pivotal moment in technological advancement, where the boundary between human and machine intelligence is becoming increasingly blurred. As AI continues to evolve at an unprecedented pace, the implications for society, ethics, and the global economy remain subjects of intense debate and speculation.
