Global Surge in Small Drones Empowers Militants Amid Weak Regulations
Image Credit: Alessio Soggetti | Splash
The rapid expansion of the international commercial market for civilian Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) has inadvertently empowered non-state actors with advanced aerial capabilities. Unlike large military-grade drones, which remain largely under the control of nation-states, small-scale UAS have become accessible to militant groups, posing significant security challenges globally. The integration of sophisticated features such as thermal optics and enhanced payload capacities in these commercially available drones has heightened concerns over their misuse in contemporary conflicts.
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Ineffective International Regulatory Measures
Efforts to regulate the burgeoning UAS market on a global scale have been fragmented and largely unsuccessful. The predominant strategy has involved restricting exports of UAS systems and their critical components to nations deemed as security threats. However, the interconnected nature of global markets has rendered these export controls largely ineffective. Non-state actors can circumvent restrictions by channeling UAS platforms and components through third countries that lack stringent export regulations, often incurring minimal costs in the process.
A notable example of this regulatory failure is the use of the Iranian Shahed UAS by Russian forces in Ukraine. Investigations by Ukrainian authorities revealed that the Russian-produced Geran-2 drone, a replica of the Shahed model, contained numerous parts sourced from the United States, China, Switzerland, and Japan. Despite comprehensive sanctions and export controls imposed on Iran since the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iranian military entities continue to manufacture drones using components available on the global open market.
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Global Arms Race in Unmanned Technology
The challenge of regulating UAS is further compounded by an ongoing international arms race in unmanned technology, driven by recent conflicts in regions such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen. Prior to the Ukraine conflict, major military forces primarily focused on deploying large UAS like the MQ-1 Predator, which require substantial infrastructure akin to manned aircraft. However, frontline experiences have accelerated the development and adoption of miniaturized UAS designed for use at the squad or individual level. This shift has led to widespread use of consumer-grade drones, such as those produced by DJI, which, while marketed for recreational purposes, possess capabilities that extend far beyond simple photography or racing.
For instance, the DJI FPV model offers features including 4K/60fps video recording, a 150° super-wide field of view, 10-kilometer image transmission, and 28ms low latency. These specifications, combined with First-Person-View (FPV) control, make such drones suitable for precision attacks, including 'kamikaze' style missions.
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Economic Barriers to Effective Regulation
The persistence of a Neo-Liberal laissez-faire economic approach, which favours minimal market regulation, has been a significant obstacle in addressing the proliferation of UAS. The popularity and rapid technological advancements in the drone sector have made many Western governments hesitant to implement stringent export controls or capacity restrictions. Concerns over stifling economic growth, particularly during periods of stagflation, have contributed to the reluctance to impose effective regulatory measures.
Furthermore, major global players like the United States, China, and Russia have vested interests in maintaining the unregulated status of UAS within a legal gray area. Historical precedents, such as the delayed legal frameworks governing drone strikes during the Obama administration, illustrate the lag between technological deployment and legislative oversight. This delay provides nation-states with the opportunity to develop and integrate new drone technologies without fully addressing the accompanying legal and ethical considerations.
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Recommendations for Strengthening UAS Regulation
To mitigate the risks associated with the unchecked proliferation of UAS, experts advocate for a combination of stricter export controls and technological safeguards. Key recommendations include:
Banning High-Capacity Drones: Implementing international bans on the export of heavy-duty UAS systems equipped with advanced optics like thermal or infrared sensors and effective operational ranges exceeding two kilometers.
Regulating UAS Components: Tightening control over the export of critical UAS components, ensuring that they are only distributed to trusted international corporate partners subject to rigorous audits by entities such as the United States State Department or the United Nations Disarmament Commission.
Controlling Miniaturized Technology: Preventing the enhancement of existing UAS systems with military-grade capabilities by regulating the sale and distribution of miniaturized drone technology.
Implementing Geo-Fencing Software: Mandating that UAS manufacturers incorporate geo-fencing technology to restrict the operation of drones outside designated national boundaries, thereby limiting their potential use in unauthorized regions.
While these measures may not entirely eliminate the use of drones by militant groups, they could significantly impede access for sanctioned entities and create substantial barriers to the deployment of UAS in conflict zones.
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Advocating for a Global Cultural Shift
Beyond regulatory measures, there is a pressing need for a global cultural transformation that stigmatizes the use of UAS in warfare. Drawing parallels to the international consensus against chemical and nuclear weapons, fostering a societal aversion to military drone use could enhance the effectiveness of existing and future regulations. Public opposition to UAS on the battlefield could diminish their acceptance and deployment, thereby reducing their prevalence in military operations.
The historical legacy of the World Wars demonstrates that not all technologies are universally accepted, and a collective moral stance can render certain weapons unacceptable. Establishing a similar taboo against military drones could prevent the emergence of a third World War dominated by drone warfare.
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Source: The Organization of World Peace
