Executive Summary
In this instalment of our ongoing AI Stock Prediction Series, TheDayAfterAI News put six of the most widely used AI chatbots to the test: Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, Claude, and Copilot. Each was given the same brief — analyse Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and forecast its stock price over the five trading days from February 5 to February 11, 2026.
This week's prediction challenge arrives at a particularly dramatic moment. Alphabet just reported blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings — beating estimates on both revenue ($113.8B) and EPS ($2.82) — yet simultaneously shocked the market with 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $175–$185 billion, nearly double the prior year. The result: pre-market trading on February 5 showed the stock down roughly 3–4% from its February 4 close of $333.34, creating a rare test case where strong fundamentals collide head-on with investor anxiety over AI spending intensity.
The verdict from our AI panel? A divided but cautiously optimistic consensus. Four of six models predict GOOGL will recover from its post-earnings gap-down by February 11, while two models — Grok and Copilot — take a contrarian bearish stance, projecting continued downside pressure. The average expected return across all six models is +1.8% from the predicted opening price, with a consensus bullish probability of approximately 57.5%.
Market Context: The Capex Shock That Divided Wall Street
Alphabet's Q4 2025 earnings call on February 4 delivered a paradox that perfectly encapsulates the current AI investment debate. On one hand, the company reported its first-ever $400 billion annual revenue milestone, with Google Cloud emerging as the standout at $17.7 billion in quarterly revenue (up 48% year-over-year) and operating margins expanding to 30.1%. Search revenue grew 17%, defying predictions that AI chatbots would cannibalise Google's core business. EPS of $2.82 beat consensus of $2.63 by over 7%.
On the other hand, management's announcement that 2026 capital expenditures would reach $175–$185 billion — a 55% increase above Wall Street expectations and roughly double the ~$91 billion spent in 2025 — immediately triggered a sell-off. The stock initially dropped 7% in after-hours trading before partially recovering, and pre-market on February 5 showed prices in the $318–$324 range, representing a ~3–4% gap-down from the prior close.
The broader backdrop adds further complexity. The tech sector has been under pressure with the Nasdaq Composite recording four down sessions in five days. Treasury yields are firming with the 10-year at 4.27–4.28%, the VIX is elevated at 18–21, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to a cautious risk-off posture.
Head-to-Head: Six AI Predictions Compared
The table below presents each chatbot's core predictions side by side. All models were given equivalent prompts and access to publicly available market data as of February 5, 2026 pre-market.
| AI Chatbot | Pred. Open (Feb 5) | Pred. Close (Feb 11) | Price Range | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | $320.50 | $332.50 | $314.50–$336 | 65% ↑ |
| ChatGPT | $320.00 | $331.00 | $315–$335 | 62% ↑ |
| Grok | $325.00 | $320.00 | $310–$340 | 55% ↓ |
| Perplexity | $322.00 | $337.00 | $310–$350 | 60% ↑ |
| Claude | $328.50 | $336.00 | $318–$345 | 58% ↑ |
| Copilot | $323.30 | $318.00 | $315–$345 | 60% ↓ |
| Average | $323.2 | $329.1 | $313.8–$341.8 | 55% ↑ |
The Bullish Camp: Gemini, ChatGPT, Perplexity & Claude
Four of six AI models project that GOOGL will recover from its post-earnings gap-down over the five-day period, though they differ in the magnitude and confidence of that recovery.
Perplexity — Most Bullish (+4.7%)
Perplexity delivered the most optimistic forecast, projecting a close of $337 against an opening of $322 — a robust 4.7% recovery. Its analysis stands out for integrating the Apple-Gemini partnership announced in January 2026, which it views as a transformative catalyst that makes Google "a core AI infrastructure provider for over 2 billion Apple devices." Perplexity also cited the cooling-but-not-broken momentum indicators and strong dip-buying interest in the $318–$325 zone as drivers for a base-and-rebound scenario.
Gemini — The Detailed Strategist (+3.7%)
Gemini produced the most comprehensive analysis of the group, framing the entire period around what it calls a "Capex-Induced Dislocation" thesis. Its 13-page report includes detailed day-by-day price projections, scenario modelling (bullish/base/bearish with probability weights), and extensive treatment of options microstructure including Max Pain dynamics and gamma exposure. Gemini predicts an opening near $320.50, an initial "flush" toward $314–$318, followed by a progressive recovery to $332.50 by February 11.
ChatGPT — The Pragmatist (+3.4%)
ChatGPT's analysis was concise and data-driven, projecting a $320 open recovering to $331 by February 11. Its day-by-day estimates show a measured recovery pattern: $323 on Feb 5, $326 on Feb 6, $327 on Feb 9, $329 on Feb 10, and $331 on Feb 11. ChatGPT notably flagged the Employment Situation report on the final day as the primary binary risk.
Claude — The Cautious Optimist (+2.3%)
Claude was the most conservative of the four bullish models, predicting an opening of $328.50 (the highest among all six) and a close of $336. Its relatively higher opening price reflects a view that the worst of the after-hours selling had already been absorbed. Claude gave a 58% probability to an increase — the lowest bullish conviction in the group — and uniquely highlighted the DOJ antitrust appeal filed on February 3 as a negative catalyst.
The Bearish Camp: Grok & Copilot
Two models broke from the consensus to predict net declines over the five-day period, though their reasoning differed in emphasis.
Copilot — Most Bearish (−1.6%)
Copilot delivered the most bearish forecast, projecting GOOGL would close at $318 against a $323.30 open — a net decline with 60% conviction. Its analysis placed heavy emphasis on the macro environment, noting that "U.S. futures were trading lower on Feb 5 as investors digested the capex guide and broader tech weakness."
Grok — Contrarian Bear (−1.5%)
Grok was the other bearish outlier, predicting a close of $320 versus a $325 open. What makes Grok's analysis distinctive is its emphasis on sector rotation dynamics — it cited $435 million in weekly outflows from tech ETFs and rotation into cyclicals and small caps as structural headwinds.
Common Themes Across All Six Models
Despite their differing conclusions, several analytical themes emerged consistently across all six AI chatbots:
- The Capex Paradox: Every model identified the $175–$185B capex guidance as the dominant short-term driver, while simultaneously acknowledging the long-term strategic rationale (custom TPUs, vertical integration, competitive moat).
- Cloud as the Floor: All six models highlighted the 48% Google Cloud growth as the fundamental anchor preventing deeper declines.
- Options Microstructure: Five of six models discussed gamma effects, Max Pain dynamics, and the February 6 options expiry as short-term price constraints.
- Macro Binary Risk: All models identified the Employment/CPI data releases as potential catalysts for sharp directional moves.
- Technical Oversold Bounce: Most models noted that RSI approaching or below 30 historically generates buy signals for GOOGL, supporting the mean-reversion thesis.
- Sector Rotation Headwind: All models acknowledged the broader rotation out of mega-cap tech into financials and industrials as a structural constraint on upside.
Key Events to Watch This Week
- February 5 (Thu): Amazon Q4 earnings (post-market) — the closest cloud peer. Strong AWS numbers could normalise Google's capex narrative.
- February 6 (Fri): Employment Situation report + weekly options expiry. A soft jobs print supports tech; a strong one pressures yields higher.
- February 10 (Mon/Tue): MSCI index review announcement — potential for rebalancing-driven volume spikes.
- February 11 (Wed): CPI release — the most significant macro hurdle. A hot print (>0.3% MoM core) would crush the recovery thesis; an in-line print provides relief.
Conclusion: A Divided AI Consensus in a High-Volatility Week
This week's GOOGL prediction challenge produced the most divided consensus we have seen in our AI Stock Prediction Series. The 4-vs-2 bullish-bearish split reflects the genuine tension in the market between Alphabet's exceptional fundamental performance and the near-term anxiety surrounding its aggressive capital allocation strategy.
The bullish majority, led by Perplexity (+4.7%) and Gemini (+3.7%), argues that the market is overreacting to the capex number and that strong Cloud growth, the Apple-Gemini partnership, and oversold technical conditions will drive a mean-reversion rally. The bearish minority, anchored by Copilot (−1.6%) and Grok (−1.5%), counters that macro headwinds, tech rotation, and CPI risk will keep a lid on any recovery attempt.
Which AI models will prove most prescient? We will publish our follow-up accuracy assessment after the trading period concludes on February 11, 2026. In the meantime, this experiment continues to illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of AI-generated market analysis — these models can synthesise vast amounts of data with impressive speed and structure, but short-term stock price prediction remains one of the most humbling challenges in finance.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
