Introduction
Can artificial intelligence predict the stock market? At TheDayAfterAI News, we decided to put this question to the test. We presented the same analytical challenge to six of the most widely used AI chatbots and compared their forecasts head-to-head.
The subject: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ: CRDO), a semiconductor connectivity company that had just dropped a blockbuster preliminary revenue announcement on February 9, 2026. With Q3 FY2026 revenue coming in at $404–$408 million — roughly 19% above guidance and far exceeding the $341 million analyst consensus — the stock gapped up over 15% in after-hours trading.
We asked each chatbot: What will CRDO's stock price do over the next five trading days (February 10–17, 2026)? The six AI chatbots tested were Gemini (Google), ChatGPT (OpenAI), Grok (xAI), Perplexity, Claude (Anthropic), and Copilot (Microsoft).
The Catalyst: What Every Chatbot Agreed On
All six platforms identified the same core catalyst: Credo's preliminary Q3 FY2026 revenue of $404–$408 million crushed both its own guidance ($335–$345 million) and Wall Street consensus (~$341 million). Every chatbot recognised this as a material positive event driven by accelerating demand for Active Electrical Cables (AECs) in AI data centre infrastructure.
All six also identified the same macroeconomic risk events: CPI data release and the Presidents' Day market closure on February 16. The analyst consensus was universally described as overwhelmingly bullish, with 15 Buy ratings and price targets ranging from $198 to $227.
The Forecasts at a Glance
| Metric | Gemini | ChatGPT | Grok | Perplexity | Claude | Copilot | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 Open | $142.10 | $144 | $143 | ~$143 | ~$148 | $140 | $143.4 |
| Feb 17 Close | $156.25 | $151 | $155 | ~$147 | ~$146 | $130 | $147.5 |
| P(Up) | 85% | 58% | 70% | ~60% | 50–55% | 35% | 60% |
| Range | $136–$165 | $132–$168 | $140–$160 | $125–$165 | $130–$165 | $118–$155 | $130–$163 |
| Bias | Strong Bull | Moderate Bull | Bullish | Slight Bull | Neutral | Bearish | Slight Bull |
Individual Chatbot Analysis
1. Gemini — The Strongest Bull
Gemini delivered the most detailed and most bullish report, framing its analysis as an institutional-grade equity research report. It projected CRDO opening at $142.10 and closing at $156.25, assigning an 85% probability to a positive weekly return. It provided day-by-day forecasts, incorporated gamma squeeze dynamics and IV crush analysis, and modelled three distinct CPI scenarios.
2. ChatGPT — The Measured Pragmatist
ChatGPT struck a moderate tone, projecting an opening near $144 and a closing price of $151 with a 58% probability of upside. Its explicit scenario framework included a bull case (~30%, $150–$175), base case (~45%, $138–$165), and bear case (~25%, $125–$145).
3. Grok — The Fundamentals-First Analyst
Grok produced the most methodical analysis, predicting an opening price of $143 and a Feb 17 close of $155, with 70% probability of increase. Its standout feature was structured data presentation, including tables for sentiment metrics (VIX at 18, put/call ratio at 0.60, short interest at 4.83%).
4. Perplexity — The Data-Heavy Realist
Perplexity produced the most extensively sourced report, citing over 70 references. It projected ~$143 open and ~$147 close with 60% probability. Perplexity was the only chatbot to discuss beta-adjusted volatility scaling and provide 2-sigma tail risk estimates. It also flagged recent insider selling as a risk factor.
5. Claude — The Cautious Contrarian
Claude's analysis was the most explicitly cautious, predicting ~$148 open and ~$146 close — implying flat to slightly down. It assigned only 50–55% probability of increase and was the only chatbot to explicitly note that much of the upside may already be priced into the gap-up open. Claude provided the most granular risk matrix, scoring ten distinct factors by direction, weight, and impact level.
6. Copilot — The Lone Bear
Copilot was the clear outlier, projecting a decline from $140 open to $130 close with a 65% probability of ending lower. Its bearish thesis rested on the argument that the gap-up created a high-volatility environment with limited short-covering fuel. The day-by-day path projected progressive retracement: $138, $132, $128, $125, before a modest bounce to $130.
Key Themes and Divergences
The Bull-Bear Spectrum
The most striking observation is the enormous spread in directional conviction. Gemini's 85% upside probability and Copilot's 65% downside probability represent fundamentally incompatible views. The spectrum: Gemini (strong bull) → Grok (bullish) → Perplexity (cautiously bullish) → ChatGPT (moderately bullish) → Claude (neutral) → Copilot (bearish).
The "Gap-and-Fade" Debate
Gemini argued that "breakaway gaps" in high-momentum stocks rarely fill immediately, while Copilot treated the gap as a textbook setup for mean reversion. This debate mirrors a genuine tension in technical analysis, with academic research mixed on gap-fill probabilities.
What This Experiment Reveals
First, AI chatbots can produce remarkably sophisticated financial analysis. All six reports demonstrated understanding of options mechanics, macroeconomic transmission channels, and institutional positioning.
Second, the same data produces wildly different conclusions. A 50-percentage-point spread in directional probability from the same fundamental inputs is a powerful reminder that forecasting is as much about analytical framework as data access.
Third, the ensemble approach has value. The consensus average (~60% upside probability, ~$147 closing price) may prove more reliable than any individual extreme forecast.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
