Introduction
At TheDayAfterAI News, we believe the best way to evaluate AI-driven market analysis is to put multiple leading chatbots to the same test — side by side. In this instalment of our AI Chatbot Stock Forecast Series, we tasked six of the most widely used AI chatbots with a single challenge: predict the price trend of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) over a five-trading-day window from 11 February to 18 February 2026.
Each chatbot was asked to provide a predicted opening price, a predicted closing price, an estimated intra-period trading range, and a probability assessment. The six chatbots evaluated were ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, and Copilot.
Market Context: Why HOOD This Week?
The forecast period coincided with one of the most event-rich weeks for Robinhood in recent memory:
- Post-Earnings Reaction: Robinhood released Q4 and Full Year 2025 results after market close on February 10. While EPS of $0.66 beat consensus ($0.63), total revenue of $1.28 billion missed the $1.34–$1.37 billion consensus range. Cryptocurrency transaction revenue plunged 38% YoY to $221 million, triggering a 7–8% after-hours selloff.
- Dense Macro Calendar: The week featured the delayed January Jobs Report (Feb 11), the January CPI release (Feb 13), and FOMC Minutes (Feb 18).
- Presidents' Day Holiday: Markets were closed on Monday, February 16, compressing the trading week.
- Crypto Sensitivity: With Bitcoin trading around $67,000 (down 47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126,080), HOOD's high correlation with crypto markets added additional volatility.
Forecast Summary: All Six Chatbots at a Glance
| Chatbot | Predicted Open (11 Feb) | Predicted Close (18 Feb) | Est. Trading Range | Direction | Probability (Down / Up) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $77.20 | $83.00 | $72 – $86 | ↑ Up | 43% / 57% |
| Claude | $85.32 | $81.00 | $74 – $90 | ↓ Down | 60% / 40% |
| Gemini | $78.25 | $73.80 | $70.50 – $81.50 | ↓ Down | 78% / 22% |
| Perplexity | $79.50 | $76.00 | $72 – $88 | ↓ Down | 65% / 30% |
| Grok | $78.00 | $75.00 | $70 – $85 | ↓ Down | 60% / 40% |
| Copilot | $79.00 | $76.00 | $72 – $90 | ↓ Down | 60% / 40% |
| Average | $79.6 | $77.5 | $71.8 – $86.8 | ↓ Down | 61% / 38% |
Consensus View: Five Bears, One Cautious Bull
Five out of six chatbots predicted that HOOD would close below its opening price on 18 February, with the probability of decline ranging from 60% to 78%. Only ChatGPT predicted a net gain, forecasting a +7.5% move from $77.20 to $83.00 — driven by oversold conditions and dip-buying potential.
Key Drivers Identified Across Chatbots
1. Post-Earnings Sentiment (Universally Cited)
All six chatbots identified the Q4 2025 earnings miss as the dominant near-term catalyst. The revenue shortfall of approximately $60–$90 million versus consensus, concentrated in cryptocurrency transaction revenue, was flagged as the primary driver of the gap-down open.
2. Cryptocurrency Market Correlation (Cited by All)
Every chatbot highlighted HOOD's significant correlation with Bitcoin. Claude provided particularly granular data, noting Bitcoin's 47% decline from its October 2025 ATH, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 6 (near record lows), and Robinhood's roughly 50% price correlation with crypto markets.
3. Technical Breakdown (Cited by All)
All chatbots agreed the technical picture was decisively bearish: the stock was trading well below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. RSI readings clustered around 34–45 (near oversold but not extreme), and MACD was firmly negative.
4. Macro Event Risk (Cited by All)
The dense economic calendar — Jobs Report, CPI, and FOMC Minutes — was universally flagged as a source of binary risk. Gemini was the most detailed, modelling specific CPI scenarios. ChatGPT took a more constructive view, suggesting benign macro data could facilitate a mean-reversion bounce.
5. Options Positioning (Cited by 5 of 6)
Five chatbots analysed options flow. Notable observations included a put/call open interest ratio of just 0.3 (cited by Claude as contrarian bullish), significant put positioning at the $71 strike, and gamma squeeze mechanics that could amplify moves in either direction.
6. Seasonal and Structural Headwinds (Cited by 4 of 6)
Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, and Copilot all noted the negative seasonal backdrop: Presidents' Day is historically the weakest market holiday, February is HOOD's worst calendar month (20% historical probability of positive returns), and shortened trading weeks tend to amplify the prevailing trend.
Day-by-Day Forecast Comparison
| Date | ChatGPT | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11 Feb | $79.00 | $77.50 | $77 |
| Thu 12 Feb | $80.50 | $76.80 | $76 |
| Fri 13 Feb | $81.00 | $75.10 | $75 |
| Tue 17 Feb | $82.50 | $74.50 | $74 |
| Wed 18 Feb | $83.00 | $73.80 | $75 |
ChatGPT envisioned a steady recovery from the gap-down open. Gemini modelled a "lower highs, lower lows" trajectory with CPI acting as an inflection point. Grok projected a similar declining pattern with a modest final-day bounce.
Scenario Analysis Comparison
| Chatbot | Bull Case (Probability) | Base Case (Probability) | Bear Case (Probability) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | $86–$90 (20%) | $78–$83 (50%) | $72–$76 (30%) |
| Gemini | $80–$82 (15%) | $73.80 (60%) | $68–$70 (25%) |
| Perplexity | $82–$86 (30%) | ~$76 (45–50%) | $72–$74 (20–25%) |
| Copilot | $85–$90 (25%) | $72–$80 (60%) | Below $72 (15%) |
Editorial Commentary
Convergence on fundamentals, divergence on interpretation. All six chatbots identified the same core drivers — the earnings miss, crypto weakness, macro risk, and technical breakdown. Where they differed was in how they weighted these factors against potential catalysts for recovery.
Confidence calibration varies widely. Gemini expressed 78% conviction in a decline, while Claude and Copilot were at 60%. Higher conviction does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.
AI chatbots as a research aggregation tool. The real value of this exercise is not in any single prediction, but in the rapid synthesis of fundamental, technical, and macro data across multiple analytical frameworks.
Conclusion
The overwhelming consensus is that HOOD faces continued near-term pressure during the 11–18 February 2026 trading window, with a predicted decline probability averaging approximately 61%. The expected closing price clusters around $75–$81. The key risk events to watch are the January CPI report on 13 February and any developments in the cryptocurrency market over the Presidents' Day long weekend.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
