1. Introduction: Why We Asked Six AI Chatbots to Forecast HIMS
At TheDayAfterAI News, we believe one of the most compelling applications of generative AI lies in its ability to synthesise vast quantities of financial data into coherent forward-looking assessments. We presented the same analytical challenge to six leading AI chatbots: Google Gemini, xAI Grok, OpenAI ChatGPT, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot, and Anthropic Claude.
The challenge: forecast the stock price trajectory of Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) for the five trading days from February 9 to February 13, 2026.
The timing was far from arbitrary. HIMS entered this week amid arguably the most acute crisis in its corporate history: a regulatory crackdown by the FDA, a patent infringement lawsuit from Novo Nordisk, the forced withdrawal of its compounded oral semaglutide pill, and a DOJ referral — all converging against a backdrop of delayed macroeconomic data releases.
2. The Crisis Context: What Hit HIMS
The Compounding Crisis
On February 5, 2026, Hims & Hers launched a compounded oral semaglutide pill at $49/month, dramatically undercutting branded Wegovy. By February 7, the company halted sales following intense FDA regulatory pressure, eliminating what many analysts had modelled as a multi-hundred-million-dollar revenue opportunity.
The Novo Nordisk Lawsuit
On February 9, Novo Nordisk filed a patent infringement lawsuit (US Patent 8,129,343) targeting HIMS's injectable compounded semaglutide products, seeking both a permanent injunction and monetary damages.
Regulatory and Legal Escalation
The HHS General Counsel referred HIMS to the DOJ for investigation, and the FDA signalled its intent to take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 APIs in non-approved compounded drugs. Class-action securities fraud investigations were also underway.
The net result: HIMS shares, which closed at $23.02 on Friday, February 6, were trading in the $18–19 range pre-market on Monday — a decline of approximately 18–22%.
3. The Forecasts at a Glance
| Metric | Gemini | Grok | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Copilot | Claude | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open (Feb 9) | $19.30–$19.75 | $18.50 | $18.20 | $18.40 | $18.50 | $18.50–$19.50 | $18.7 |
| Close (Feb 13) | $17.25 | $20.00 | $17.20 | $20.50 | $17.25 | $19.00 | $18.5 |
| Weekly Range | $15.50–$21.50 | $17.50–$22.00 | $15.50–$20.50 | $16.00–$22.50 | $15.50–$21.50 | $16.00–$22.00 | $16.0–$21.7 |
| P(Down) | 68% | 45% | 55% | 45% | 65% | 60% | 56% |
| Bias | Strong Bear | Slight Bull | Lean Bear | Slight Bull | Strong Bear | Lean Bear | Lean Bear |
4. Individual Chatbot Analysis Summaries
4.1 Google Gemini — "Strong Bearish Continuation"
Gemini produced the most extensive and aggressively bearish analysis, framing the situation as an "existential threat" to HIMS's business model. It predicted a steady decline from $18.80 to $17.25 by Friday, included in-depth options microstructure analysis, and assigned 68% bearish probability — the highest of any chatbot.
4.2 xAI Grok — "Oversold but Vulnerable"
Grok took the most balanced approach, predicting a closing price of $20.00 reflecting a belief in a "modest recovery on oversold bounce and short covering." It was the only chatbot to assign a greater than 50% probability to the stock closing above its opening price (55%).
4.3 OpenAI ChatGPT — "Gap-and-Go Risk"
ChatGPT emphasised the "gap-and-go" risk — the possibility that Monday's gap down would continue lower throughout the week. Its base-case predicted a decline from $18.20 to $17.20, with a notable intraday low estimate of $16.00 on Friday.
4.4 Perplexity — "Modest Rebound from Depressed Open"
Perplexity produced the most methodologically transparent analysis with 74 sources. Its predicted Friday close of $20.50 was the most bullish. Its contrarian thesis rested on extreme oversold technicals (RSI ~23–24), high short interest (~35% of float), and statistical observations about post-gap reflexive bounces.
4.5 Microsoft Copilot — "Legal/Regulatory Overhang Dominates"
Copilot's 65% bearish / 35% bullish split aligned closely with Gemini. Its three-scenario framework (Base Negative 65%, Stabilisation/Squeeze 30%, Tail Risk 5%) was clearly presented with a practical "monitoring checklist."
4.6 Anthropic Claude — "Crisis Mode, High Volatility with Slight Bearish Bias"
Claude's analysis was the most comprehensive in terms of company-specific catalysts, uniquely highlighting the DOJ referral, the Super Bowl LX advertisement, and Amazon Pharmacy's competitive pricing threat. Its midpoint closing prediction of ~$19.00 placed it in the centre of the forecast range with 60% bearish / 40% bullish.
5. Where the Chatbots Agreed and Disagreed
Areas of Strong Consensus
| Consensus Area | Agreement |
|---|---|
| Opening Price | All predicted near $18.20–$19.75, clustered around $18.50 |
| Primary Catalyst | Novo Nordisk lawsuit + FDA regulatory action |
| Technical Condition | Deeply oversold RSI (sub-25–34), broken moving averages |
| Volatility | Extremely wide weekly ranges ($5–$7 spread) |
| Short Interest | ~35% short interest creating dual-risk: pressure OR squeeze |
| Macro Events | NFP (Wed) and CPI (Fri) amplifying volatility |
The Bear Camp (Gemini, Copilot, ChatGPT, Claude)
These four chatbots assigned 55–68% probability to a net weekly decline. Their thesis centred on the severity of the fundamental impairment: the loss of GLP-1 revenue, the existential nature of the patent lawsuit, and institutional de-risking.
The (Cautious) Bull Camp (Grok, Perplexity)
Grok and Perplexity assigned 55% probability to a net weekly gain. Their thesis rested on mean-reversion mechanics: extreme oversold technicals, very high short interest, and statistically probable reflexive bounces after major gap-downs.
6. Comparative Assessment
| Chatbot | Strengths | Limitations | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | Deepest options microstructure; day-by-day forecasts | Possibly overconfident in bearish conviction | Derivatives-focused traders |
| Grok | Broadest market context; sector rotation analysis | Most optimistic closing price may underweight legal severity | Macro-aware investors |
| ChatGPT | Concise and actionable; explicit about uncertainty | Least detailed fundamental analysis | Quick decision-making |
| Perplexity | Most transparent methodology; 74 sources | Bullish tilt may prove premature | Research-oriented analysts |
| Copilot | Clear scenario structure; practical checklist | Limited fundamental detail | Risk managers |
| Claude | Most complete catalyst coverage; balanced | Wide range reduces actionability | Comprehensive overview seekers |
9. Conclusion
The collective verdict: high volatility is virtually certain, the downside risks are severe and well-understood, but the magnitude of the selloff has created technical conditions where a reflexive bounce cannot be ruled out.
The average predicted Friday closing price is approximately $18.53, representing a roughly 19.5% decline from the February 6 close of $23.02 but a modest gain from the expected Monday open near $18.50. The average probability assessment is approximately 56% bearish / 44% bullish.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
