Introduction
Can artificial intelligence predict the stock market? At TheDayAfterAI News, we put six of the world's leading AI chatbots to the test. We asked each one the same question: What will AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) stock do over the next five trading days, from February 12 to February 19, 2026?
AppLovin presented a fascinating test case. On February 11, 2026, the company reported blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings — revenue of $1.66 billion (+66% YoY), an extraordinary 84% adjusted EBITDA margin, and Q1 2026 guidance above consensus. Yet in a classic "sell-the-news" reaction, the stock dropped 5–7% in after-hours trading, compounded by sector-wide software weakness, Google's Genie 3 AI disruption narrative, and the looming January CPI report on February 13.
We tasked six chatbots — Google Gemini, OpenAI ChatGPT, xAI Grok, Perplexity, Anthropic Claude, and Microsoft Copilot — with providing their predicted opening price, predicted closing price, probability of price increase vs. decrease, and an estimated trading range.
Head-to-Head Forecast Comparison
| AI Chatbot | Predicted Open (Feb 12) | Predicted Close (Feb 19) | Price Range | P(Up) | P(Down) | Overall Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | $445.60 | $471.25 | $432–$484 | 65% | 35% | Bullish |
| ChatGPT | $424 | $445 | $400–$470 | 45% | 55% | Slightly Bearish |
| Grok | $440 | $460 | $420–$480 | 60% | 40% | Slightly Bullish |
| Perplexity | $435 | $448 | $400–$490 | 55% | 45% | Slightly Bullish |
| Claude | $440 | $432 | $400–$475 | 40% | 60% | Bearish |
| Copilot | $474 | $505 | $440–$560 | 60% | 40% | Bullish |
| Average | $443 | $460 | $415–$493 | 54% | 46% | Slightly Bullish |
What Each AI Said
Google Gemini — The Confident Bull
Gemini delivered the most detailed and structurally bullish analysis. It framed the post-earnings pullback as a "tactical accumulation opportunity" within a structural uptrend, projecting a two-phase week: initial volatility testing near $440–$450, followed by a recovery driven by value buyers and positive options-flow mechanics.
Gemini's 55% base-case scenario ("Grind and Recover") anticipated the stock finding a floor at the 50-day SMA around $431–$435, with post-holiday liquidity pushing prices back toward $468–$475. It also discussed gamma squeeze potential and dismissed the Google Genie 3 AI disruption narrative as "noise."
OpenAI ChatGPT — The Cautious Realist
ChatGPT took the most conservative opening price estimate at $424, anchored tightly to the pre-market print of ~$422. It assigned a slight downside skew (55% probability of net decrease) based on bearish momentum indicators (RSI ~43.7, negative MACD) and the risk of a hot CPI print amplifying the sell-off in high-multiple growth names.
xAI Grok — The Balanced Pragmatist
Grok produced the most balanced analysis, predicting a $440 open and a $460 close with a 60% probability of net increase. It emphasised the tension between strong fundamental support (analyst consensus Buy rating, average price target ~$682, 49% upside) and near-term technical headwinds. Grok's day-by-day calendar was particularly useful, mapping specific catalysts to their potential impact on APP.
Perplexity — The Methodical Researcher
Perplexity delivered the most extensively sourced analysis (87 citations), structuring its response across six detailed analytical pillars. Its central estimate of $435 open to $448 close implied a modest +2–4% net gain. A standout feature was its careful handling of moving average data, noting that APP was trading below its 20-day ($505), 50-day ($608), and 200-day ($503) moving averages — a "textbook medium-term downtrend."
Anthropic Claude — The Contrarian Bear
Claude was the lone outright bear, predicting a closing price of $432 — lower than its predicted $440 opening price — and assigning a 60% probability of net decrease. It framed AppLovin as "fundamentally the strongest it has ever been" but "technically weakened and sentiment-damaged." Claude's analysis was distinctive in its focus on competitive threats: CloudX's LLM agent-based tools, Google's Project Genie, the SEC investigation, and the broader "SaaSpocalypse" narrative.
Microsoft Copilot — The Outlier Optimist
Copilot was the clear outlier, projecting the highest opening price ($474), the highest closing price ($505), and the widest upper range ($560). Its opening estimate appears anchored to a different pre-market observation point than the other five AIs. The day-by-day forecast showed a steady climb from $474 to $505, driven by short-covering and institutional flows.
Key Themes Across All Six Analyses
Universal Agreement
- Fundamentals are strong: All six AIs acknowledged that APP's Q4 2025 earnings were exceptional (84% EBITDA margin, 66% revenue growth).
- CPI is the key macro catalyst: Every analysis identified the January CPI report (February 13) as the single biggest external risk factor.
- High volatility is guaranteed: All six projected wide intraday ranges (8–10%+ daily swings possible), reflecting implied volatility near ~95%.
- Presidents' Day liquidity gap: All noted the market closure on February 16 would create de-risking pressure.
- Options expiration dynamics matter: Five of six discussed the Feb 13 weekly options max pain at ~$450.
Key Disagreements
- Directional conviction: Four AIs leaned bullish, one mildly bearish (ChatGPT), one outright bearish (Claude).
- Opening price anchoring: A $50 spread from $424 (ChatGPT) to $474 (Copilot) reflects different pre-market data snapshots.
- AI disruption weighting: Gemini dismissed the Google Genie narrative as "noise"; Claude treated it as a material risk factor.
Editorial Observations
Data anchoring matters enormously. The $50 spread in opening price estimates demonstrates that pre-market data snapshots taken even minutes apart can produce radically different starting points — and therefore different trajectories.
Depth varies wildly. Gemini's 16-page report with 38 citations and Perplexity's 17-page analysis with 87 citations stand in stark contrast to Copilot's 3-page summary. However, more detail does not necessarily mean better predictions.
Risk framing reveals AI personality. Claude's deliberate assignment of low confidence (20–25%) and focus on tail risks reflects a cautious, risk-aware analytical style. Gemini's "Aggressive Buy on Dips" recommendation reflects a conviction-driven approach. Neither is inherently superior.
None of these are investment advice. Short-term stock prediction remains extraordinarily difficult, and AI models are synthesising publicly available information — they have no edge on insider knowledge or real-time order flow.
What Happens Next?
At TheDayAfterAI News, we will track the actual price action of APP over the February 12–19 trading window and publish a follow-up scorecard grading each AI's accuracy. Stay tuned for the results. In the world of AI-powered market analysis, the real test is always: what happens the day after.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
