Amazon Stock Forecast: 6 AI Chatbots Analyze the $200B "Capex Shock"

Introduction

At TheDayAfterAI News, we believe the best way to understand how AI is reshaping financial analysis is to put it to the test. In this instalment of our AI Chatbot Stock Forecast Series, we gave the same assignment to six of the most widely used AI chatbots: predict Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) stock price movement over five trading days, from February 6 to February 12, 2026.

The six chatbots tested are: Gemini (Google), Claude (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI), Perplexity, Grok (xAI), and Copilot (Microsoft).

The Context: Amazon's "Capex Shock"

On February 5, 2026, Amazon reported Q4 2025 earnings after market close. Revenue of $213.4 billion (+14% YoY) beat consensus expectations, and AWS delivered impressive 24% year-over-year growth to $35.6 billion. However, these strong results were completely overshadowed by a single figure: Amazon guided for $200 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, far exceeding the $146.6 billion analyst consensus.

The stock, which closed at $222.69 on February 5, cratered to approximately $198–$204 in after-hours trading — a total decline of roughly 10–14%. Adding to the complexity: a partial U.S. government shutdown had delayed key economic releases; CPI data was scheduled for mid-week; the VIX had spiked above 20; and a broader rotation out of high-capex tech names was underway.

Head-to-Head: Forecast Summary

Consensus and Divergence

Where They Agree

Every model identified the $200 billion capex guidance as the dominant short-term catalyst. All six projected an opening price in the $201–$206 range. They universally flagged deep oversold conditions (RSI in the low 30s), broken moving averages, elevated implied volatility, and agreed that $190–$200 was meaningful support while $210–$222 was formidable resistance.

Where They Diverge

Four chatbots (Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Copilot) predicted a net decline, while Claude and ChatGPT leaned cautiously bullish. Gemini was the most bearish, projecting a close of $199.20 with 85% probability of decline. ChatGPT was the most optimistic, forecasting $208 with 60% probability of increase.

Individual Chatbot Analysis

1. Gemini — The Deep-Dive Bear

Gemini delivered the most extensive analysis spanning options gamma exposure, dealer hedging dynamics, and macroeconomic policy risk. Its 11-page report constructed three probability-weighted scenarios: "Capitulation & V-Bottom" (15%), "Slow Bleed / Consolidation" (60%), and "Macro Flush" (25%). Its deep dive into options identified a "Put Wall" at $190 and a "Gamma Wall" at $210.

2. Claude — The Calibrated Optimist

Claude balanced bearish technical damage against statistical tendencies for mega-cap stocks to partially recover within five days of a large post-earnings gap. Its 55/45 bullish-to-bearish split was the most balanced, grounded in historical patterns showing 50–55% partial recovery within 5 days for 10%+ post-earnings gaps in mega-caps.

3. Perplexity — The Methodical Synthesiser

Perplexity delivered the most systematically referenced analysis with over 100 cited sources. Its standout contribution was granular treatment of options microstructure, noting implied volatility at 58% with an IV rank of 84.6% and dense weekly expiration dates that would amplify swings.

4. ChatGPT — The Pragmatic Stabiliser

ChatGPT offered the most concise analysis in a structured three-page format. Its bullish lean (60% probability of increase) rested on the argument that most of the "information shock" was already priced into the gap down, and stabilisation was statistically more likely than straight-line decline.

5. Grok — The Sentiment-Aware Analyst

Grok uniquely integrated social media sentiment from X (Twitter) and retail investor positioning data, citing posts calling AMZN a "dead stock." Its 60/40 bearish lean reflected concern about a confirmed head-and-shoulders breakdown and defensive market breadth (45% advancers vs. 52.1% decliners).

6. Copilot — The Volatility Hawk

Copilot projected the widest potential range ($185–$240) with emphasis on options gamma exposure and macro event uncertainty. Its 65/35 bearish split represented the second-strongest bearish conviction after Gemini.

Analytical Approaches Compared

Key Takeaways

The Bearish Majority: Four of six chatbots (67%) predicted Amazon would finish the period lower. The consensus average closing price is approximately $203.70.

Analytical Quality Spectrum: Gemini and Perplexity delivered institutional-grade research with sophisticated derivatives analysis. Claude offered the best-calibrated probability framework. ChatGPT prioritised clarity. Grok brought unique social sentiment data.

The Limits of AI Forecasting: The value lies not in any single prediction, but in understanding how different AI systems approach complex, multi-factor analytical challenges under real-world conditions.

What to Watch This Week

Key markers: whether the $190–$200 support zone holds; whether the stock can sustain recovery above $208–$210; the impact of CPI data; and overall tech sector rotation dynamics as the market digests the era of $200 billion AI infrastructure bets.

Methodology

Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.