Introduction
At TheDayAfterAI News, we are pioneering a unique approach to financial analysis: harnessing the collective intelligence of today's leading AI chatbots to generate short-term stock price forecasts. In this instalment of our ongoing series, we tasked six of the most widely used AI chatbots — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, Perplexity, and Copilot — with the same challenge: predict the price trajectory of Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) over the five trading sessions from Friday, February 13 to Friday, February 20, 2026.
Each chatbot was given identical prompts and access to the same publicly available market data. They were asked to provide a predicted opening price (Feb 13), a predicted closing price (Feb 20), a probability assessment of whether the stock would rise or fall over the period, an estimated price range, and a session-by-session forecast path.
Why AMAT, and Why This Week?
Applied Materials is a bellwether of the semiconductor equipment industry and a direct beneficiary of the global AI infrastructure buildout. The forecast window was chosen deliberately because it presented an unusually dense confluence of market-moving events:
- Earnings Catalyst: AMAT reported a blowout Q1 FY2026 after the close on February 12, beating consensus on both EPS ($2.38 vs. $2.19–$2.21 expected) and revenue ($7.01B vs. $6.88B expected), while guiding Q2 revenue to $7.65B — a staggering 9% above Street estimates.
- Macro Data: January CPI released on the morning of February 13 came in at 2.4% YoY, below the 2.5% consensus, providing a disinflationary tailwind for growth stocks.
- Regulatory Resolution: AMAT settled its $252.5M export-control penalties with the Bureau of Industry and Security on February 11, removing a persistent regulatory overhang.
- Structural Events: The week included a US market holiday (Presidents' Day, Feb 16), monthly options expiration (Feb 20), VIX futures expiry (Feb 18), FOMC minutes (Feb 18), and AMAT's ex-dividend date (Feb 19).
Headline Predictions at a Glance
The table below summarises the core predictions from each chatbot. All six were bullish, but the degree of conviction and the specific price targets varied meaningfully.
| Chatbot | Predicted Open (Feb 13) | Predicted Close (Feb 20) | Period Change | Prob. Up | Range Low | Range High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $365.00 | $382.00 | +4.7% | 60% | $345 | $405 |
| Gemini | $368.50 | $384.25 | +4.3% | 85% | $362 | $392 |
| Claude | $368.00 | $373.00 | +1.4% | 58% | $358 | $383 |
| Grok | $364.00 | $380.00 | +4.4% | 75% | $350 | $400 |
| Perplexity | $363.00 | $375.00 | +3.3% | 60% | $335 | $395 |
| Copilot | $335.00 | $360.00 | +7.5% | 65% | $320 | $385 |
| Consensus (Avg) | $360.58 | $375.71 | +4.2% | 67.2% | $345 | $393 |
Note: Copilot's opening price estimate appears to have been based on the pre-earnings closing price rather than the post-earnings pre-market level.
Key Observations
1. Universal Bullish Consensus
All six chatbots predicted AMAT would finish the week higher than its opening price on February 13. The probability assessments ranged from a cautious 58% (Claude) to an assertive 85% (Gemini). This unanimity reflects the overwhelming weight of the earnings catalyst: a beat-and-raise quarter driven by AI-related semiconductor demand.
2. The Opening Price Divergence
Five of the six chatbots converged on an opening price in the $363–$369 range, consistent with pre-market trading levels. The outlier was Copilot at $335, which appears to have anchored its opening estimate closer to the February 12 closing price of $328.39 rather than accounting for the overnight repricing.
3. Closing Price Spread: Cautious vs. Euphoric
The predicted closing prices ranged from $360 (Copilot) to $384.25 (Gemini), a spread of $24.25. Claude was the most conservative among the five pre-market-aware models, projecting just a +1.4% gain, citing AMAT's historical pattern of post-earnings sell-offs. Gemini was the most bullish, projecting +4.3% with 85% confidence, heavily weighting the gamma squeeze thesis.
4. Volatility Expectations
Perplexity projected the widest range ($335–$395, a $60 spread), reflecting its emphasis on the elevated VIX environment. Gemini projected the narrowest range ($362–$392, a $30 spread). ChatGPT's range ($345–$405) was the most aggressive on the upside, being the only model to contemplate prices above $400.
5. Where the Models Agreed Most
All six models converged on several key themes: the earnings beat was the primary bullish catalyst; January CPI was a supportive tailwind; the prior 52-week high of $344.60 was identified as critical support; and FOMC minutes (Feb 18) and options expiration (Feb 20) were the week's most significant risk events.
How Each Chatbot Approached the Forecast
| Chatbot | Primary Analytical Focus | Distinguishing Feature |
|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | Multi-factor integration: technicals, positioning, catalysts | Deeply sourced with 50+ citations; structured session-by-session macro event mapping |
| Gemini | Quantitative equity research with gamma exposure analysis | Most bullish; detailed options microstructure and gamma squeeze mechanics |
| Claude | Balanced fundamental and historical pattern analysis | Most cautious; uniquely highlighted AMAT's -7.99% average post-earnings sell-off |
| Grok | Broad survey integrating technicals, sentiment, fundamentals | Concise and actionable; balanced bullish view with clear support/resistance levels |
| Perplexity | Factor-by-factor structured analysis with probabilistic framework | Widest estimated range; most emphasis on VIX regime and breadth deterioration risks |
| Copilot | Options flow and macro calendar overlay | Apparent pre-market data gap; opening price significantly below peers |
Scenario Probabilities: How Confident Are the Models?
| Chatbot | Bull Case | Base Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | 65% — Melt-up to $390+ | 25% — Consolidation, $360 support | 10% — Gap fill / reversal to $344 |
| Claude | 25% — $385–$400 close | 50% — $365–$380 consolidation | 25% — $345–$358 close |
| Perplexity | 25–30% — Extends to $380–400 | ~50% — Drift to ~$375 | 20–25% — Retrace to $330–355 |
Gemini assigned a 65% probability to a "melt-up" scenario above $390, while Claude and Perplexity assigned just 25–30% to their bull cases. This difference largely stems from how each model weighted the gamma squeeze thesis.
Critical Levels and Events to Watch
Key Price Levels
- Critical Support — $344–$345: The prior 52-week/all-time high. A close below this level would invalidate the breakout thesis.
- Near-Term Support — $358–$365: The post-earnings gap zone. Holding this range on any pullback would confirm buyer conviction.
- Upside Resistance — $380–$385: Psychological round number and options strike concentration.
- Stretch Target — $400+: Only achievable in the bull scenario.
Key Events
- Tuesday Feb 17 — Retail Sales: The first major macro data point after the long weekend.
- Wednesday Feb 18 — FOMC Minutes: The single most frequently cited risk event.
- Thursday Feb 19 — Ex-Dividend ($0.46): A small mechanical price adjustment.
- Friday Feb 20 — Monthly Options Expiration: Capable of amplifying whatever directional trend has established itself.
Our Editorial Take
Data quality is paramount. Copilot's significantly lower opening price estimate demonstrates that even sophisticated models can produce materially different outputs when they anchor on stale data.
Analytical depth varies widely. ChatGPT's 50+ citation, multi-factor framework and Gemini's quantitative gamma exposure analysis contrast sharply with Copilot's more concise approach.
Contrarian signals have value. Claude's uniquely cautious stance — explicitly citing AMAT's -7.99% average post-earnings day move — serves as an important counterweight to the bullish consensus.
Consensus is not certainty. Even with all six models agreeing on the direction, the probability assessments averaged just 67%. The AI models themselves are telling us there is roughly a one-in-three chance the stock finishes the week lower.
Conclusion
The AI consensus for AMAT's February 13–20 trading window is constructive: a predicted opening around $361–$369 (excluding the Copilot outlier), a closing target in the $373–$384 range, and a roughly two-thirds probability of finishing the week in positive territory. The fundamental catalyst — a transformative earnings report powered by AI-driven semiconductor demand — is strong, but the tactical environment introduces meaningful two-way risk.
At TheDayAfterAI News, we will continue to track AMAT's actual price action through this window and publish a follow-up analysis comparing the chatbots' predictions against realised outcomes.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
