Introduction
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) reported Q4 2025 earnings after market close on Monday, February 3, 2026, delivering results that beat on virtually every metric — yet the stock dropped 6–9% in after-hours trading. Revenue came in at $10.27 billion (+34% YoY), EPS hit $1.53 versus the $1.32 consensus, the Data Centre segment surged +39% YoY, and free cash flow reached a record $2.1 billion.
Despite the comprehensive beat, AMD's pre-market price on February 4 hovered around $218–225, well below the prior close. The sell-off was driven by three key concerns: Q1 2026 guidance implying an approximate 5% sequential revenue decline, questions around $390 million in non-recurring China MI308 sales inflating the Data Centre beat, and a market increasingly demanding exponential — not merely strong — growth from AI chipmakers.
At TheDayAfterAI News, we tasked six of the most widely-used AI chatbots — Perplexity, Claude, Gemini, Copilot, ChatGPT, and Grok — with predicting AMD's stock price trajectory for the five trading days from February 4–10, 2026.
1. The Earnings Catalyst: Beat and Retreat
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Revenue | $10.27B (+34% YoY) |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.53 vs. $1.32 consensus (+15.9%) |
| Data Centre Revenue Growth | +39% YoY |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B (record) |
| Q1 2026 Guidance | ~5% sequential revenue decline |
| Non-Recurring China MI308 Sales | $390M (one-time) |
| After-Hours Reaction (Feb 3) | -6–9% sell-off |
| Pre-Market Price (Feb 4) | ~$218–225 |
2. Head-to-Head: Six AI Chatbots, One Stock
| Metric | Perplexity | Claude | Gemini | Copilot | ChatGPT | Grok | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Price (Feb 4) | $220 | $220 | $224.88 | $220 | $225 | $225 | $222.48 |
| Closing Price (Feb 10) | $235 | $226 | $231.40 | $215 | $233 | $230 | $228.40 |
| Week Low | $212 | $208 | $215.50 | $200 | $210 | $210 | $209.25 |
| Week High | $260 | $238 | $238 | $245 | $245 | $240 | $244.33 |
| Prob. of Increase | 68% | 60% | 58% | 35% | 52% | 55% | 54.67% |
| Prob. of Decrease | 15% | 40% | 42% | 65% | 48% | 45% | 42.50% |
| Implied Move | +6.82% | +2.73% | +2.90% | -2.27% | +3.56% | +2.22% | +2.66% |
| Overall Bias | Strong Bull | Mod Bull | Mod Bull | Bearish | Slight Bull | Mod Bull | Bullish |
3. Individual Chatbot Analysis Breakdown
3.1 Perplexity — Most Bullish (+6.82%)
Verdict: The aggressive bull — technical setup "overwhelmingly bullish"
Perplexity delivered the most optimistic forecast of the group, predicting AMD would open at $220 and close the week at $235 — a 6.82% gain. Its analysis leaned heavily on technical indicators, describing the setup as "overwhelmingly bullish" and citing a put/call ratio of just 0.39, indicating strong options-market confidence in upside.
Perplexity mapped out a day-by-day recovery arc from $221 on Tuesday to $235 by the following Monday, envisioning a steady grind higher as dip buyers absorbed post-earnings selling pressure and institutional flows rotated back in. The model assigned a 68% probability of increase against only a 15% chance of decline — the widest bullish skew among all six chatbots.
3.2 Claude — Measured Moderate (+2.73%)
Verdict: Cautious optimism tempered by China revenue concerns
Claude struck a balanced tone, predicting an open of $220 and a close of $226 — a modest 2.73% gain. What distinguished Claude's analysis was its pointed focus on the quality of AMD's Data Centre beat, specifically flagging the $390 million in non-recurring MI308 China sales as a significant asterisk on the headline numbers.
Claude noted that analyst price targets in the $286–289 range provide meaningful long-term upside cushion, but warned that near-term sentiment could remain fragile if the market continued to discount the China revenue as unsustainable. The model assigned a 60% probability of increase and 40% probability of decrease — cautious but still leaning bullish.
3.3 Gemini — Academic Deep-Diver (+2.90%)
Verdict: The most rigorous analysis — 200-day moving average as the battleground
Gemini produced the most comprehensive analysis of the group, delivering a detailed report that ran approximately 14 pages. Its predicted open of $224.88 and close of $231.40 represented a 2.90% gain, placing it in the moderate bullish camp alongside Claude.
What set Gemini apart was its emphasis on the 200-day moving average at $228.81 as the critical technical level for the week. The model identified CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) systematic selling as a key headwind in the early part of the week, but predicted a U-shaped recovery as fundamental buyers stepped in once selling pressure exhausted itself. Gemini assigned a 58% upside probability and 42% downside probability.
3.4 Copilot — Lone Bear (-2.27%)
Verdict: The sole bearish voice — concise and contrarian
Copilot stood alone as the only chatbot predicting AMD would close the week lower than where it opened. Its forecast of a $220 open and $215 close implied a 2.27% decline, with the model assigning a 65% probability of decrease — the inverse of the group consensus.
In a concise two-page analysis, Copilot highlighted elevated put activity and the possibility of AMD testing the low $200s during the week. The model's predicted range of $200–$245 featured the lowest floor among all six chatbots, reflecting genuine concern that post-earnings selling could accelerate rather than reverse.
3.5 ChatGPT — Balanced Pragmatist (+3.56%)
Verdict: Near coin-flip conviction with clearly defined scenarios
ChatGPT predicted an open of $225 and a close of $233, representing a 3.56% gain. However, the model's 52% upside probability was the closest to a coin flip among all six chatbots, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the week's direction.
ChatGPT's strength lay in its clearly articulated scenario framework:
- Base Case (50% probability): AMD trades in a $228–236 range as the market digests earnings and stabilises
- Bull Case (20% probability): Positive catalysts push AMD to $240–248, driven by peer earnings or analyst upgrades
- Bear Case (30% probability): Continued selling drags AMD to $214–222 as China concerns dominate the narrative
3.6 Grok — Sector Contextualist (+2.22%)
Verdict: Macro-first analysis with social sentiment overlay
Grok predicted an open of $225 and a close of $230, implying a 2.22% gain — the most conservative of the bullish forecasts. What distinguished Grok was its macro-first analytical framework, placing AMD's earnings reaction within the broader context of trade policy and sector dynamics.
Grok specifically noted that Section 232 tariffs could be structurally beneficial for AMD by disadvantaging foreign chip competitors in the US market. The model also incorporated social media sentiment analysis, gauging retail investor mood across platforms. Grok assigned a 55% probability of increase and 45% probability of decrease.
4. Key Themes of Agreement
Despite their divergent conclusions, the six AI chatbots converged on several important points:
- Opening Price Consensus: All six models clustered AMD's opening price on February 4 between $220 and $225, reflecting a shared reading of the pre-market landscape
- Fundamental Strength Acknowledged: Every chatbot recognised that AMD's Q4 results represented a genuine fundamental beat — the debate was about what came next, not what had happened
- China Revenue Quality Concern: The $390 million in non-recurring MI308 China sales was flagged by multiple models as a key risk to the sustainability of the Data Centre growth narrative
- Options Expiry Significance: Several models highlighted the weekly options expiration as a volatility catalyst that could amplify moves in either direction
- Alphabet and Amazon as Catalysts: Peer earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) during the week were identified as potential sympathy catalysts for AMD, particularly any commentary on AI infrastructure spending
5. Where the Models Diverge
| Dimension | Finding |
|---|---|
| Direction | 5 bullish (Perplexity, Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok) vs. 1 bearish (Copilot) |
| Conviction | Perplexity most confident at 68% upside; ChatGPT most uncertain at 52% |
| Analytical Depth | Gemini produced ~14 pages of analysis; Copilot delivered ~2 pages |
| Implied Move Range | Spread of 9.09 percentage points between most bullish (+6.82%) and most bearish (-2.27%) |
| Risk Assessment | Perplexity assigned only 15% downside probability; Copilot assigned 65% |
6. Conclusion: Promise and Limitations of AI Stock Prediction
The six AI chatbots present a consensus view of a 2–7% recovery for AMD over the February 4–10 trading week, with an average predicted close of $228.40 against an average predicted open of $222.48. Five of six models lean bullish, while Copilot stands alone as the bearish contrarian.
The spread between the most bullish forecast (Perplexity at +6.82%) and the most bearish (Copilot at -2.27%) — a gap of over 9 percentage points — illustrates both the promise and the limitations of using AI for short-term stock prediction. Each model brought distinct analytical strengths: Gemini's academic rigour, Perplexity's technical precision, Claude's risk-quality focus, ChatGPT's scenario clarity, Grok's macro context, and even Copilot's contrarian courage.
What these predictions collectively demonstrate is that AI chatbots can synthesise vast amounts of financial data into coherent, structured forecasts — but they remain tools for informed analysis, not crystal balls. The market will ultimately render its own verdict.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
