Introduction
Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) delivered what CEO Alex Karp called "indisputably the best results that I'm aware of in tech in the last decade" when the company reported Q4 2025 earnings after market close on Monday, February 2, 2026. Revenue surged 70% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, crushing the $1.33 billion consensus. Even more dramatic was the FY2026 revenue guidance of $7.18–7.20 billion — nearly $1 billion above Wall Street's $6.27 billion estimate.
The stock responded with an 11–16% pre-market surge from Friday's $147.76 close, setting the stage for a volatile and closely-watched trading week. At TheDayAfterAI News, we put six of the most widely-used AI chatbots to the test: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Copilot, and Grok.
1. The Earnings Catalyst: What Drove the Surge
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Revenue | $1.41B (+70% YoY) vs. $1.33B consensus |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.25 vs. $0.23 consensus (+8.7%) |
| FY2026 Revenue Guidance | $7.18–7.20B vs. $6.27B consensus (+$920M) |
| US Commercial Revenue Growth | +137% YoY to $507M |
| US Government Revenue Growth | +66% YoY to $570M |
| Rule of 40 Score | 127% (exceptional) |
| Pre-Market Reaction (Feb 3) | +11–16% surge from $147.76 close |
2. Head-to-Head: Six AI Chatbots, One Stock
| Metric | Claude | ChatGPT | Gemini | Perplexity | Copilot | Grok | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Price (Feb 3) | $163–166 | $148.20 | $164.50–166 | $163.30 | $165 | $164.50 | $161.8 |
| Closing Price (Feb 9) | $162–175 | $153 | $176.25 | $174.20 | $165 | $172 | $168.2 |
| Week High | $172–178 | $162 | $178.50 | $176 | $178–185 | $178 | $175.2 |
| Week Low | $155–160 | $138 | $163.50 | $163 | $148–155 | $158 | $155.3 |
| Prob. of Increase | 60–65% | 60% | 65% | 72% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Overall Bias | Bullish | Cautious | Strong Bull | Mod-High Bull | Bullish | Mod Bull | Bullish |
3. Individual Chatbot Analysis Breakdown
3.1 Claude (Anthropic)
Verdict: Bullish bias with Friday volatility risk
Claude delivered the most scenario-balanced analysis, presenting three probability-weighted outcomes: strong continuation (35%, targeting $172–178), moderate consolidation (40%, targeting $162–170), and a pullback from open (25%, targeting $155–162). Its most likely outcome envisions PLTR opening around $164, testing $172–175 mid-week, encountering Friday jobs-report volatility, and closing the period around $165–170.
Claude's analysis stood out for its detailed day-by-day narrative and emphasis on the options market, noting a put/call volume ratio of 0.61 (bullish) and the February 6 weekly expiration creating heightened gamma exposure. It also flagged CEO Karp's amended 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 9.975 million shares and Michael Burry's disclosed $1B+ short position as notable downside risks.
3.2 ChatGPT (OpenAI)
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic — the conservative outlier
ChatGPT emerged as the clear outlier among the six models. Its predicted opening of $148.20 and closing of $153 were dramatically lower than all other chatbots, reflecting a notably cautious reading of the post-earnings setup. While it acknowledged the strong fundamentals, ChatGPT appears to have anchored more heavily on the pre-market indicated price of $147.76 rather than the post-earnings gap-up levels.
3.3 Gemini (Google)
Verdict: Strong Buy — the most bullish of the group
Gemini produced the most comprehensive and aggressive analysis, delivering a 15-page institutional-grade equity research report. Its primary bullish case (65% probability) targets $172–$180, with a point forecast of $176.25 for the February 9 close. Gemini's bearish case carried just a 10% probability, the lowest downside risk assessment among all six models.
What set Gemini apart was its multi-dimensional catalyst framework, identifying the resolution of the US government shutdown, the delay of the January NFP report, and sympathy rallies from peer earnings as tailwinds.
3.4 Perplexity
Verdict: Moderate-High confidence bullish — the data-driven optimist
Perplexity assigned the highest probability of increase at 72%, with a predicted close of $174.20 on February 9. Its analysis was heavily data-driven, citing 44 specific sources and providing precise technical levels. The model emphasised that Palantir's oversold RSI of 38.33 provides over 30 points of rebound potential before reaching overbought territory.
3.5 Copilot (Microsoft)
Verdict: Bullish near-term bias with high-volatility caution
Copilot delivered a concise but data-rich analysis, projecting an opening of $165 and an end-of-week close of $165 — effectively predicting a volatile but flat outcome. However, the model's intra-week range was the widest among the bullish models, with a high of $178–185 and a low of $148–155.
3.6 Grok (xAI)
Verdict: Moderate bullish — earnings-led but valuation-conscious
Grok predicted an opening price of $164.50 and a closing price of $172 on February 9, representing a 65% probability of net increase. Its analysis balanced the strong earnings momentum against valuation concerns, noting PLTR trades at 102x sales — a level that "remains a debate." Grok also incorporated sentiment analysis from X (Twitter) posts.
4. Day-by-Day Predicted Closes Compared
| Date | Claude | ChatGPT | Gemini | Perplexity | Copilot | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Feb 3 | $164–170 | $152 | $167.50 | $168.50 | — | — |
| Wed Feb 4 | $162–172 | $150 | $166.75 | $167.80 | — | — |
| Thu Feb 5 | $158–170 | $154 | $171.25 | $169.20 | — | — |
| Fri Feb 6 | $158–175 | $153 | $173.50 | $172.50 | — | — |
| Mon Feb 9 | $162–175 | $153 | $176.25 | $174.20 | $165 | $172 |
5. Consensus View and Key Takeaways
The Bullish Majority
Five of the six AI chatbots — Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Copilot, and Grok — predict that PLTR will close higher on February 9 than where it opens on February 3, with upside probabilities ranging from 60% to 72%. The consensus bullish target for the week-end close clusters in the $165–$176 range, representing a 12–19% premium above Friday's $147.76 close.
The Cautious Contrarian
ChatGPT stands alone as the conservative voice, projecting a notably lower opening price ($148.20 vs. the $163–166 consensus) and a modest close of $153. This appears to stem from a methodological difference in how it anchored on the pre-market indicated price.
The Most Aggressive Bull
Gemini takes the crown as the most bullish model, with a $176.25 target and just a 10% probability assigned to the bearish case.
6. Key Events to Watch This Week
| Date | Event | Impact Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Feb 3 | House vote on government shutdown resolution | Passage removes uncertainty overhang; failure could trigger sharp selloff |
| Wed Feb 4 | ADP Employment + ISM Services PMI; Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings | Strong data supports risk-on; GOOGL Cloud/AI results could provide sympathy bid |
| Thu Feb 5 | ECB & Bank of England meetings; Amazon (AMZN) earnings | Dovish signals support growth stocks; AWS AI commentary critical for PLTR narrative |
| Fri Feb 6 | January Nonfarm Payrolls; Weekly options expiration | HIGHEST VOLATILITY DAY — binary catalyst |
| Mon Feb 9 | Post-weekend sentiment; wholesale inventories | Follow-through or mean reversion depending on Friday outcome |
8. Conclusion: What the AI Consensus Tells Us
The overwhelming consensus across six AI chatbots is bullish for PLTR in the week of February 3–9, 2026. Five of six models project the stock will close higher than where it opens, with an average upside probability of approximately 65%. The consensus week-end closing price clusters around $170–$176 (excluding ChatGPT's outlier projection).
The key areas of agreement include: Palantir's Q4 2025 earnings represent a genuine fundamental inflection point, with the $920 million guidance beat forcing a structural repricing of the stock. The $170–$175 resistance zone is the critical technical battleground for the week. And Friday's jobs report represents the single biggest binary risk to the forecast.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
