Introduction
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at $430.41 on Friday, January 30, 2026, capping a volatile stretch shaped by trade-war anxieties, mixed earnings sentiment, and elevated implied volatility. At TheDayAfterAI News, we put six of the most widely-used AI chatbots to the test — ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, and Copilot — feeding each one identical prompts and asking for a weekly price forecast for the trading week of February 2–6, 2026.
The result? Five bears and one lone bull. Here is what they predicted, where they agreed, where they diverged, and what it all means for traders navigating the week ahead.
1. Head-to-Head: Six AI Chatbots, One Stock
Each chatbot was given the same reference data — TSLA's January 30 close of $430.41 — and asked to provide an opening price, closing price, weekly high and low, probability of decline vs. gain, and an overall directional bias for the February 2–6 trading week.
| Chatbot | Open | Close | High | Low | P(Decline) | P(Gain) | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | $422.95 | $418.50 | $438 | $405.50 | 60% | 40% | BEARISH |
| Claude | $418–422 | $412–428 | $432–438 | $405–412 | 48% | 42% | BEARISH |
| Perplexity | $422–430 | $415–425 | $440–445 | $410–415 | 55–60% | 35–40% | BEARISH |
| ChatGPT | ~$430 | ~$425 | $455 | $405 | 55% | 45% | BEARISH |
| Grok | $428 | $435 | $450 | $420 | 45% | 55% | BULLISH |
| Copilot | $432 | $420 | $455 | $395 | 70% | 30% | BEARISH |
| Average | $426 | $423 | $445 | $408 | ~56% | ~42% | BEARISH |
2. The Verdict: Five Bears and One Lone Bull
The consensus is unambiguously bearish. Five of the six AI chatbots predict Tesla will close the week lower than where it opens, with an average projected closing price of $423 — roughly $7 below the January 30 reference close of $430.41.
The Most Aggressive Bear: Copilot
Microsoft's Copilot delivered the most decisive bearish call of the group, assigning a 70% probability of decline for the week. Its projected closing price of $420 and a weekly low of $395 — the deepest downside target among all six models — reflect a conviction that near-term headwinds overwhelm any bullish catalysts. Copilot's wide intra-week range ($395–$455) also signals an expectation of extreme volatility.
The Lone Bull: Grok
Grok stands alone as the only model projecting a net gain for the week, with a 55% probability of upside and a predicted closing price of $435 — approximately $5 above the reference close. Grok's bullish thesis rests on a contrarian reading of the technical and institutional landscape that diverged meaningfully from the other five models.
3. Where All Six Agree
Despite the 5-to-1 bearish skew, the six AI chatbots converged on several critical themes for the week ahead:
- Friday's Jobs Report Is the Defining Event: Every model identified the January Nonfarm Payrolls report (released Friday, February 6) as the single most important catalyst for the week. A strong print could reinforce "higher-for-longer" rate expectations and pressure growth stocks like Tesla; a weak number could reignite rate-cut hopes and provide a bid.
- Bearish Short-Term Technicals: All six models flagged that TSLA is trading below key moving averages, with RSI readings in the 44–55 range — neutral to slightly oversold territory, but not yet at levels that typically trigger a reflexive bounce.
- $405–$410 Support Zone Is Critical: The consensus floor for the week clusters tightly around $405–$410. A breach below this level would likely trigger accelerated selling, stop-loss cascades, and a potential retest of lower support levels.
- Elevated Volatility Expected: With VIX readings in the 17–19 range and Tesla's own implied volatility elevated, all models anticipated wider-than-normal intra-day and intra-week price swings.
- Macro Calendar Dominance: Beyond the jobs report, the macro calendar — including ISM data, Fed commentary, and trade-policy developments — was universally cited as the primary driver of price action over company-specific news.
4. Where They Diverge
Grok's Contrarian Bullish Case
Grok's solitary bullish stance was built on a differentiated technical and fundamental reading:
- Lower VIX Interpretation: Where other models saw elevated VIX as a warning, Grok interpreted the 17–19 range as relatively contained, suggesting the market had already priced in near-term risks.
- Bullish MACD Signal: Grok identified a bullish MACD crossover that the other models either downplayed or did not flag, interpreting it as an early sign of momentum reversal.
- Institutional Accumulation: Grok cited evidence of institutional buying activity, suggesting smart money was positioning for upside despite the bearish surface narrative.
- Cathie Wood's $2,600 Price Target: ARK Invest's long-term thesis was referenced as a sentiment anchor, reinforcing the view that deep-value buyers would defend current levels.
European Sales Collapse
Gemini delivered the most comprehensive regional sales analysis, flagging a dramatic deterioration in Tesla's European market performance:
France registrations down 42% year-over-year; Norway — historically Tesla's strongest European market — collapsed 88%. These figures suggest a structural demand problem in Europe that extends beyond seasonal fluctuations.
No other model explored European sales data at this level of granularity, making Gemini's analysis particularly valuable for investors tracking Tesla's global demand trajectory.
SpaceX/xAI Merger Premium
Gemini also uniquely identified the potential for a SpaceX or xAI merger or restructuring event to act as a price support mechanism for TSLA shares. The logic: any move that brings Elon Musk's private ventures closer to Tesla's public equity could unlock a "conglomerate premium" that would attract speculative capital even in a bearish macro environment.
5. Comparative Assessment: How the Chatbots Stack Up
| Chatbot | Strengths | Weaknesses | Report Style | Pages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | Most comprehensive analysis; day-by-day breakdown; 35+ sources cited | May overweight speculative catalysts | Equity research | 17 |
| Claude | Balanced perspective; clear risk framework; well-structured scenarios | Less options flow detail | Analyst briefing | 5 |
| Perplexity | 96 citations; strong sector rotation analysis; data-dense | Dense format may overwhelm casual readers | Research note | 14 |
| ChatGPT | Practical and actionable; IV/ATR scaling for risk management | Less fundamental depth than peers | Trading desk memo | 4 |
| Grok | Only bullish call; incorporated analyst ratings and sentiment data | Technical data diverged from consensus readings | Blog-style | 5 |
| Copilot | Most decisive call (70% bear); clear and concise | Shortest and least granular analysis | Executive summary | 2 |
6. Conclusion: Capable but Not Interchangeable
The TSLA experiment reinforces a key finding from our ongoing AI chatbot comparison series: these models are remarkably capable but not interchangeable. Each brings a distinct analytical lens — Gemini's institutional depth, Claude's balanced scenario frameworks, Perplexity's citation density, ChatGPT's trading pragmatism, Grok's contrarian instincts, and Copilot's decisive brevity.
The wisdom-of-crowds principle applies here. No single model should be treated as an oracle. But taken together, the six forecasts paint a nuanced picture: the week of February 2–6 is likely to see TSLA trade lower, with the $405–$410 zone acting as critical support, elevated volatility throughout, and Friday's jobs report serving as the week's binary catalyst. Grok's bullish dissent deserves attention — contrarian calls are often wrong, but when they are right, they tend to be spectacularly right.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
