Executive Summary
In this instalment of our AI Stock Prediction Series, TheDayAfterAI News tasked six leading AI chatbots with forecasting Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) stock price over five trading days, from January 29 to February 4, 2026. The six chatbots tested are: Grok (xAI), ChatGPT (OpenAI), Gemini (Google), Claude (Anthropic), Perplexity, and Copilot (Microsoft).
The verdict? A rare unanimous bullish consensus. All six models predict META will close higher by February 4, with an average expected closing price of $741.60 against an average predicted opening of $719.60 — a projected gain of approximately 3.1%. The average probability of closing higher stands at 64%, though individual confidence levels range widely from Perplexity's cautious 53.5% to Grok's emphatic 80%.
The Context: A Blockbuster Q4 Earnings Beat
On January 29, 2026, Meta reported Q4 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations across every major metric. Earnings per share came in at $8.88 versus the consensus estimate of $8.19, a beat of approximately 8.4%. Revenue reached $59.89 billion, representing 24% year-over-year growth, comfortably surpassing analyst expectations.
Perhaps more significantly, Meta issued Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, blowing past the consensus estimate of $51.3 billion by a wide margin. The company also announced planned capital expenditures of $115 billion to $135 billion for fiscal 2026, underscoring management's aggressive bet on AI infrastructure — a figure that, depending on one's perspective, represents either visionary conviction or excessive spending risk.
Head-to-Head: Forecast Summary
The table below presents each chatbot's core predictions side by side. All models were given equivalent prompts and access to publicly available market data as of January 29, 2026.
| AI Chatbot | Pred. Open (Jan 29) | Pred. Close (Feb 4) | P(Up) | Price Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | $731 | $760 | 80% | $720–$780 |
| ChatGPT | $724 | $738 | 56% | $690–$785 |
| Gemini | $730.50 | $754.80 | 65% | $718–$765 |
| Claude | $738–$745 | $725–$740 | 58% | $705–$780 |
| Perplexity | $668.73* | $719.50 | 53.5% | $689.50–$739.50 |
| Copilot | $722 | $745 | 70% | $700–$780 |
| Average | $719.60 | $741.60 | 64% | $703–$772 |
* Perplexity's lower opening price reflects its use of pre-market data captured earlier in the session, before the full earnings-driven gap-up materialised.
Key Market Drivers
All six models identified a common set of catalysts shaping META's near-term trajectory, though they weighted them differently.
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Q4 Earnings Beat | Strongly Bullish — EPS and revenue exceeded consensus, confirming monetisation strength |
| Q1 2026 Guidance | Bullish — $53.5–$56.5B guidance far exceeded $51.3B consensus |
| AI / CapEx Spending | Mixed — $115–$135B signals ambition but raises margin compression concerns |
| Fed Rate Decision | Neutral — FOMC meeting expected to hold rates steady, limiting macro disruption |
| Sector Rotation | Bearish Headwind — ongoing rotation out of mega-cap tech into value sectors |
| Options Flow | Bullish — heavy call buying and bullish positioning observed post-earnings |
| Short Interest | Neutral-Bullish — low short interest reduces squeeze risk but supports stability |
Individual Chatbot Analysis
1. Grok — The Alpha Bull
Grok delivered the most aggressively bullish forecast, projecting a close of $760 with 80% confidence in upside — the highest conviction among all six models. Grok's thesis centres on what it describes as "earnings momentum amplification," arguing that the combination of a massive EPS beat, forward guidance exceeding expectations by $2–$5 billion, and bullish options flow creates a self-reinforcing upward spiral. Grok placed heavy emphasis on institutional flows, noting significant call volume at the $750 and $760 strikes as evidence of smart money positioning for continued upside.
2. ChatGPT — The Range-Bound Pragmatist
ChatGPT projected a more moderate close of $738 with 56% probability of increase — one of the lower confidence levels in the group. Its analysis was structured around three scenarios: a bull case ($760–$785) driven by sustained earnings momentum, a base case ($720–$740) reflecting post-earnings consolidation, and a bear case ($690–$710) triggered by macro headwinds or capex anxiety. ChatGPT's standout contribution was its emphasis on the widest price range of the group ($690–$785), reflecting a nuanced appreciation of the binary risks surrounding the FOMC decision and sector rotation dynamics.
3. Gemini — The Regime Change Analyst
Gemini produced one of the most intellectually distinctive analyses, forecasting a close of $754.80 with 65% bullish conviction. Its report introduced two compelling frameworks: a "Regime Change" thesis arguing that Meta's earnings beat was not incremental improvement but rather a structural re-rating of the company's AI monetisation capability, and a "CapEx FOMO" concept suggesting that the market would begin to treat Meta's $115–$135B investment plan as a competitive moat rather than a cost burden. Gemini's analysis included detailed day-by-day projections and probability-weighted scenario modelling across bullish, base, and bearish outcomes.
4. Claude — The Balanced Sceptic
Claude was the most nuanced of the six, projecting a closing range of $725–$740 with 58% probability of upside. Uniquely among the bullish models, Claude explicitly flagged a scenario in which META could close lower than its opening price despite the strong earnings print. Claude's concern centred on the capex figure: at $115–$135 billion, it represents a significant escalation that could trigger margin compression fears once the initial earnings euphoria fades. Claude also highlighted the risk of a "sell-the-news" reaction in the second half of the forecast window, particularly if broader tech sentiment deteriorated around the FOMC decision.
5. Perplexity — The Conservative Synthesiser
Perplexity delivered the most conservative forecast, projecting a close of $719.50 with just 53.5% probability of increase — the lowest conviction in the group. Its analysis was grounded in an extensive review of over 60 cited sources spanning financial data providers, analyst reports, and news outlets. Perplexity's caution stemmed from its earlier data snapshot, which captured pre-market pricing before the full gap-up, and from its emphasis on mean-reversion risks following large post-earnings gaps. Despite its lower price target, Perplexity's analysis was among the most methodologically rigorous, with detailed treatment of options microstructure and institutional positioning.
6. Copilot — The Steady Optimist
Copilot projected a close of $745 with 70% probability of upside — the second-highest conviction after Grok. Its analysis was concise and action-oriented, focusing on the immediate post-earnings momentum dynamics and supportive options flow. Copilot identified the $700 level as critical support and $780 as the upper bound of the near-term range, with its base case centring on a measured drift higher as institutional buyers rotate into the post-earnings strength.
Consensus and Divergence
Where They Agree
- Bullish Post-Earnings Bias: All six models predict META will close higher over the forecast period, making this the most unanimous bullish consensus we have observed in our AI Stock Prediction Series.
- $700–$720 Support Zone: Every model identified the $700–$720 range as meaningful near-term support, below which the bullish thesis would require reassessment.
- CapEx as a Double-Edged Sword: All six acknowledged that the $115–$135B capex plan is simultaneously Meta's greatest long-term strength and its most significant near-term risk factor.
- Options Flow Supports Upside: Five of six models cited bullish options positioning — heavy call buying at the $740–$760 strikes — as a supportive technical factor.
Where They Diverge
- Probability Spread: The 26.5 percentage-point gap between Perplexity's 53.5% and Grok's 80% reflects fundamentally different confidence frameworks — Perplexity weights historical mean-reversion risks heavily, while Grok leans into momentum signals.
- CapEx Interpretation: Grok and Gemini view the capex figure as a bullish catalyst ("CapEx FOMO"), while Claude and Perplexity treat it as a headwind that could cap upside once initial enthusiasm fades.
- Price Target Range: The $40.50 spread between Perplexity's $719.50 close and Grok's $760 close represents meaningful disagreement on the magnitude of the post-earnings rally.
Analytical Approaches Compared
| Dimension | Grok | ChatGPT | Gemini | Claude | Perplexity | Copilot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth | Moderate | Moderate | Very Deep | Deep | Very Deep | Concise |
| Unique Edge | Momentum / Flow | Scenario Planning | Regime Change Thesis | Risk Calibration | Source Depth | Clarity |
| Options Analysis | Good | Good | Excellent | Good | Excellent | Basic |
| Conviction | Highest (80%) | Moderate (56%) | High (65%) | Moderate (58%) | Lowest (53.5%) | High (70%) |
What to Watch This Week
- January 29 (Wed): META opening reaction to Q4 earnings — the first 30 minutes of trading will set the tone for the entire forecast period.
- January 29 (Wed): FOMC rate decision — consensus expects rates held steady, but any hawkish language could pressure high-growth tech names.
- January 30–31: Apple and Amazon earnings — peer results will either reinforce or undermine the AI spending narrative.
- February 3–4: ISM Manufacturing and broader macro data — context for the sector rotation theme that several models flagged as a headwind.
Conclusion
Meta's Q4 2025 earnings beat created the conditions for a rare unanimous bullish verdict from our six-model AI panel. The consensus points to a closing price in the $700–$780 range with a 64% average probability of finishing higher by February 4. However, the wide spread in conviction — from Perplexity's cautious 53.5% to Grok's emphatic 80% — reflects genuine uncertainty about how the market will digest Meta's massive AI infrastructure bet once the initial earnings euphoria subsides.
The key tension point is clear: Meta's execution is exceptional, but the $115–$135 billion capex commitment represents a leap of faith that will take quarters to validate. Whether the market rewards that ambition or punishes it in the near term is the question that divided even our AI consensus.
We will publish our follow-up accuracy assessment after the trading period concludes on February 4, 2026.
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
